NBA DRAFT LOTTERY SIMULATOR
The new 2027 3-2-1 lottery: 16 teams, 37 balls, draft relegation and all 16 lottery picks drawn. Run it, compare it with the old 14% odds, then mock draft the 2027 class.
LOTTERY ODDS
LOTTERY NIGHT
FULL FIRST ROUND
2027 MOCK DRAFT
Pick for one team or let every team draft. Each name has a one-line read from his size and class, and each pick says whether he was the best left or a reach for a need.
The 3-2-1 lottery, explained
On May 28, 2026 the NBA Board of Governors voted 29-1 to replace the 14-team lottery for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts. The lottery grows to 16 teams, and instead of drawing only the top four picks, all 16 lottery picks are drawn.
Every team that misses the playoffs and the play-in gets three balls. The 9 and 10 seeds in each conference get two, and the two teams that lose the 7-vs-8 play-in game get one. The three worst records are draft relegated: they drop to two balls, but can't fall below the 12th pick. That's 37 balls in all.
Add the new streak limits (no team's pick can go first overall two years running, or top five three years running) and finishing last stops being a strategy. A three-ball team's chance at No. 1 is 3 in 37, about 8.1%. The worst team's is 2 in 37, about 5.4%.
How this simulator works
The starting standings are a projection of the 2026-27 season: we play the full 82-game schedule several times with our game engine and the current rosters, then average the records. Change any team's wins or simulate a whole new season and the field rebuilds itself. The play-in games are simulated too, because who loses the 7-vs-8 game decides who gets one ball.
The odds table comes from tens of thousands of simulated draws, so it includes the floors and streak rules, not just the ball counts. Switch to Classic to see the same standings under the 2019-26 system (14% for each of the three worst teams).
Then take your order into the mock draft: pick for your team from the 2027 big board while the other 29 teams draft by the board and their roster needs. Each name has a one-line read from his size and class, and each pick says whether he was the best left or a reach for a need. Picks are shown under the team whose record earned them. For a draft-first page that opens straight on the clock, use the NBA draft simulator.
FAQ
How does the new NBA 3-2-1 draft lottery work?
From 2027 to 2029, 16 teams enter the lottery and all 16 lottery picks are drawn. Teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in get three balls, except the three worst records, which are draft relegated to two. The 9 and 10 seeds in each conference get two balls and the two teams that lose the 7-vs-8 play-in games get one. That is 37 balls in total.
What are the odds of winning the No. 1 pick in 2027?
Each ball is one chance in 37 for the first pick: about 8.1% for a three-ball team, 5.4% for a two-ball team (including the three draft-relegated worst records) and 2.7% for a one-ball team. Under the old system the three worst teams each had 14%.
What is draft relegation?
The three teams with the worst records lose one of their three lottery balls, so finishing last now gives worse odds than finishing fourth or fifth from the bottom. To soften the blow, a relegated team cannot fall below the 12th pick.
Are there other new lottery restrictions?
Yes. A team's pick cannot be first overall in two straight drafts or in the top five in three straight drafts. The simulator applies both rules using the 2025 and 2026 draft results.
Where do the standings come from?
Before and during the season the simulator starts from a projection made by playing the full 82-game schedule several times with our game engine and the current rosters. You can edit any team's wins, or simulate a brand new season, before running the lottery.
Can I run the old lottery too?
Yes. Switch to the classic format to use the 2019-2026 rules: 14 non-playoff teams, the top four picks drawn, and 14%, 14%, 14%, 12.5% and so on for the No. 1 pick.
What does the big board say about a prospect?
Each prospect gets a one-line read from the facts we have: height for his position, class year and his place on our consensus board. It is not a report on his skills. When a team drafts him, the pick says whether he was the best player left or a reach for a position that team is thin at.
Is the NBA draft lottery simulator free?
Yes. It is free, runs in your browser and needs no sign-up. It is an independent fan tool and is not affiliated with the NBA.