The 3-2-1 lottery, pick by pick.
The NBA publishes the odds for the No. 1 pick. We ran the new lottery 2 million times to get the rest: every slot, every team, and how it compares with the old system.
By the Hoop Simulator team · October 10, 2026 · 7 min read
From the 2027 draft, the NBA uses a new lottery: 16 teams, 37 balls, every lottery pick drawn, and the three worst records "draft relegated" to two balls. The league's announcement gives the odds of the first pick. That's one number out of 256. Teams, fans and anyone with a protected pick care about the other 255: how often does the worst team land in the top four, and how far can it fall?
We ran the draw 2 million times with the same rules as our draft lottery simulator and counted where every lottery spot ended up. Here is what came out.
The rules in one paragraph
Teams that miss both the playoffs and the play-in get three balls. The 9 and 10 seeds in each conference (play-in teams that never reach the 7 vs 8 game) get two. The two teams that lose the 7 vs 8 play-in game get one. The three worst records lose a ball and drop to two, but they can't fall below the 12th pick. That is 37 balls, and all 16 picks are drawn one at a time. Two streak rules also apply from 2027 to 2029: no team can win No. 1 in back-to-back years, and no team can pick in the top five three years running. Those depend on which team it is, so the tables below leave them out.
Three findings
1. The worst record is no longer the best place to be. Under the old system the worst team picked 3.7 on average. Under 3-2-1 it picks 8.1. The 4th to 10th worst teams now average about 7.4, so finishing last costs you more than half a pick on average compared with finishing sixth.
2. Top-four odds collapsed at the bottom. The three worst teams used to land in the top four 52.2% of the time. Now it is 22.2%. Teams 4 to 10 are at 31.7%, the most of anyone.
3. The floor is real. A relegated team can't fall below 12th. In our draws the worst team finished 12th 25.1% of the time and never lower. A play-in team that lost the 7 vs 8 game still wins No. 1 2.7% of the time, about one lottery in 37.
The floor bends the rest of the table too. When the relegated teams are still in the hopper late, the draw is forced to hand them picks 10 to 12, so everyone else is pushed past them: a 4th-to-10th-worst team lands exactly 12th only 1.8% of the time, but 13th 7.0%. A 9 or 10 seed is likelier to pick 14th (9.3%) than 4th (5.7%).
Old lottery vs new lottery
Same finishing spot, two systems. "Avg pick" is the expected draft slot.
| Finish | Old: No. 1 | New: No. 1 | Old: top 4 | New: top 4 | Old: avg pick | New: avg pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 14.0% | 5.4% | 52.2% | 22.2% | 3.7 | 8.1 |
| 2nd worst | 14.0% | 5.4% | 52.2% | 22.2% | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 3rd worst | 14.0% | 5.4% | 52.2% | 22.2% | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 4th worst | 12.5% | 8.1% | 48.2% | 31.7% | 4.4 | 7.4 |
| 5th worst | 10.5% | 8.1% | 42.1% | 31.7% | 5.0 | 7.4 |
| 6th worst | 9.0% | 8.1% | 37.2% | 31.7% | 5.5 | 7.4 |
| 7th worst | 7.5% | 8.1% | 32.0% | 31.6% | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| 8th worst | 6.0% | 8.1% | 26.3% | 31.6% | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| 9th worst | 4.5% | 8.1% | 20.3% | 31.6% | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| 10th worst | 3.0% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 31.6% | 9.2 | 7.4 |
| 11th worst* | 2.0% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 22.2% | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| 12th worst* | 1.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 22.2% | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| 13th worst* | 1.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 22.1% | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| 14th worst* | 0.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 22.2% | 13.7 | 9.1 |
*In the new format spots 11 to 14 are the play-in 9 and 10 seeds; in the old format they were the play-in losers. The old lottery only covered 14 teams.
The full 3-2-1 table
The chance of each lottery team landing each pick, from 2 million draws. Rows within a tier are identical by design, since the draw doesn't care about record inside a tier, except for the relegation floor.
| Lottery team | Balls | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | #15 | #16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst record | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 25.1% | – | – | – | – |
| 2nd worst | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 25.0% | – | – | – | – |
| 3rd worst | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 25.1% | – | – | – | – |
| 4th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 5th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| 6th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 7th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 8th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| 9th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| 10th worst | 3 | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Play-in 9/10 seed | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% |
| Play-in 9/10 seed | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Play-in 9/10 seed | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Play-in 9/10 seed | 2 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Lost 7 vs 8 game | 1 | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 26.6% |
| Lost 7 vs 8 game | 1 | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 26.5% |
What it means for protected picks
Pick protections are written for slots, not records. A "top-4 protected" pick owed by a bottom-three team used to convey about half the time; under 3-2-1 it conveys about 77.8% of the time. The new rules also ban protections covering picks 12 to 15. You can try any protection in the trade simulator.
Run it yourself
The lottery simulator draws this lottery with real 2026-27 standings projected by our game engine, applies the streak rules to the actual teams, and then lets you run a two-round mock draft of the 2027 class.
Method
Monte Carlo, 2,000,000 lotteries per format, using the draw code from the lottery simulator: each pick is drawn with probability proportional to the balls (or combinations) left in the hopper, and when the remaining relegated teams would otherwise fall below 12th they are drawn first. Percentages carry about ±0.04 points of sampling noise. Rules: NBA Board of Governors release, May 2026; old odds: the 2019-2026 combination table.